Antonelli can be crowned world champion in Austin: here's exactly what he needs
Kimi Antonelli heads to Austin 102 points clear, with his first world title within reach at the next race. Every scenario, and the records he would break.
Kimi Antonelli could be world champion in two weeks.
He left Singapore 102 points clear with six races and 150 points left, and the next stop is the United States Grand Prix in Austin on 25 October. Get the right result there and he becomes the youngest champion in Formula 1 history. If not, Mexico City is waiting a week later.
The standings
| Pos | Driver | Team | Points | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | Mercedes | 340 | |
| 2 | George Russell | Mercedes | 238 | -102 |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari | 229 | -111 |
| 4 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 221 | -119 |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 215 | -125 |
| 6 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 201 | -139 |
What he needs in Austin
After Austin, 125 points will remain, so Antonelli has to leave Texas more than 125 points clear of everyone. That needs three things to go his way: he wins, Russell finishes 10th or lower, and Hamilton finishes 5th or lower.
| Antonelli | Russell | Hamilton | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 10th or lower | 5th or lower | World champion |
| Wins | 9th or higher | Any | On to Mexico |
| Wins | 10th or lower | 4th or higher | On to Mexico |
| 2nd or lower | Any | Any | On to Mexico |
It’s a big ask, but not a wild one. In Singapore, Russell started 21st after an engine penalty and could only climb to ninth. One more difficult weekend for him plus a win for Antonelli, and the party starts in Texas.
Austin has done this before: Lewis Hamilton clinched the title at the Circuit of the Americas in 2015 and again in 2019.
If not Austin: Mexico City, 1 November
If Austin doesn’t do it, Mexico City almost certainly will. After Mexico, 100 points will remain, and Antonelli already leads by 102. So if he simply matches Russell across the two races, he is champion.
Across Austin and Mexico combined, he can afford to be outscored by:
| Rival | By no more than |
|---|---|
| Russell | 1 point |
| Hamilton | 10 points |
| Verstappen | 18 points |
| Leclerc | 24 points |
Mexico has crowned a champion before too: Lewis Hamilton clinched the title there in 2017 and 2018.
If Russell does gain ground, Brazil on 8 November is the next chance. To stop it there, Russell would need to outscore Antonelli by more than 26 points across the three races.
What if Qatar or Abu Dhabi are cancelled?
Both races were confirmed by F1 on 3 October after months of doubt. But if the calendar shrank, Austin would look very different.
If either Qatar or Abu Dhabi is cancelled
Only 100 points would remain after Austin, so he’d need to leave Texas more than 100 points clear. With a 102-point lead, that’s far easier:
| Antonelli finishes | Champion if Russell finishes | On to Mexico if Russell finishes |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | Anywhere | - |
| 2nd | 3rd or lower | 1st |
| 3rd | 4th or lower | 1st or 2nd |
| 4th | 5th or lower | On the podium |
| 5th | 6th or lower | 4th or higher |
| 6th or lower | Behind him | Ahead of him |
One catch: if Antonelli finishes 4th or lower, Hamilton can also push it on to Mexico by winning, or by finishing more than 10 points ahead of him.
If both are cancelled
Only 100 points would be left from Austin onwards, and Antonelli already leads by 102. He would already be world champion before turning a wheel in Texas.
The records waiting for him
Youngest world champion ever. Antonelli turned 20 in August. Crowned in Austin, he would be champion at 20 years and 61 days (20 years and 68 days in Mexico). That’s more than three years younger than the current record holder, Sebastian Vettel, who won the 2010 title at 23 years and 134 days.
Sebastian Vettel, still the youngest world champion in Formula 1 history, celebrates winning the 2013 German Grand Prix. Photo: Getty Images/Red Bull Content Pool
First Italian champion in 73 years. Italy has had only two world champions: Giuseppe Farina, the first ever, in 1950, and Alberto Ascari, in 1952 and 1953. Nobody since.
Italy’s only world champions so far: Giuseppe Farina and Alberto Ascari. Photos: El Gráfico, public domain via Wikimedia Commons
Mercedes’ fourth champion. Only three drivers have won the title with Mercedes: Juan Manuel Fangio in the 1950s, Lewis Hamilton (six titles) and Nico Rosberg (2016). Antonelli would be the fourth, and the team’s first champion since Hamilton in 2020.
A second-season champion. Antonelli made his F1 debut in 2025. Winning the title in only his second season is rare: the most recent drivers to do it were Lewis Hamilton in 2008 and Jacques Villeneuve in 1997.
The first champion born in the 2000s. Every world champion so far was born in the 20th century. The most recent, Lando Norris, was born in 1999. Antonelli was born in 2006.
Where it started: a 12-year-old Antonelli after winning the Rok Mini class at the 2018 Rok Cup Super Final. Photo: Kartmag
Going to COTA for the race? Our Austin circuit guide has the full schedule, an interactive circuit map, parking and tips from fans who have been.
