How Antonelli wins the 2026 title: every permutation, with or without Qatar and Abu Dhabi

Kimi Antonelli leaves the Singapore Sprint 89 points clear at the top of the championship. Seven races remain. Singapore was the last Sprint of the season and there is no bonus point for fastest lap, so 25 points for a win is the most anyone can score per weekend.

Qatar and Abu Dhabi spent months in doubt because of the war in the Middle East. F1 confirmed both on 3 October, but we have also run the numbers for a shorter season, in case that changes.

The standings

Pos	Driver	Team	Points	Gap
1	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	325
2	George Russell	Mercedes	236	-89
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	221	-104
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	197	-128
5	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	196	-129
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	189	-136

Everyone from Leclerc down would need Antonelli to collapse. In practice this is Antonelli against his own teammate, with Hamilton an outside threat.

The races left

Race	Date (local)	Points
Singapore	11 October	25
United States	25 October	25
Mexico City	1 November	25
Brazil	8 November	25
Las Vegas	21 November	25
Qatar	29 November	25
Abu Dhabi	6 December	25

That’s 175 points with the full calendar, 150 if either Qatar or Abu Dhabi is dropped, and 125 if both are.

The simple rule

Antonelli is champion the moment his lead over second place is bigger than the points left. Right now second place is Russell. The chart below shows when that happens if the two of them score the same from now on.

If neither driver gains on the other, Antonelli wins the title in Brazil with the full calendar, in Mexico if one race is dropped, and in the United States if both are.

The worst case for Antonelli

Say Russell wins every race from tonight. How many points does Antonelli need to still be champion?

Even if Russell wins every race, Antonelli needs only 12.4 points a race on average with the full calendar. That’s a little more than fourth place.

Put another way:

• Full calendar: a podium every weekend makes him champion, even if Russell wins all seven races.
• No Qatar or no Abu Dhabi: fourth place every weekend is enough.
• Neither: sixth place every weekend is enough.

The latest name on the world championship trophy is 2025 champion Lando Norris. Antonelli’s could be next. Photo: Wan Mikhail Roslan/ZUMA Press

The earliest he can win it

This is what Antonelli needs against Russell, from tonight, to be champion at each race. “Gain” means he has to outscore Russell by that many points in total. “Lose up to” means Russell can outscore him by that many and he’s still champion.

After	Full calendar	No Qatar or no Abu Dhabi	Neither
Singapore	Not possible	Not possible	Gain 12
United States	Gain 37	Gain 12	Lose up to 13
Mexico	Gain 12	Lose up to 13	Lose up to 38
Brazil	Lose up to 13	Lose up to 38	Lose up to 63
Las Vegas	Lose up to 38	Lose up to 63	Decided

With the full calendar, the earliest Antonelli can win the title is Austin on 25 October. He would need to outscore Russell by 37 points across Singapore and the United States. Russell starts tonight from 21st, but he has the pace to fight back through the field, so that is far from guaranteed.

If one of the Middle East races is dropped, Austin still comes first, but he only needs to gain 12 points.

If both were dropped, he could have been champion tonight in Singapore by outscoring Russell by 12 or more. With both races confirmed, that can’t happen this weekend.

The best case for Mercedes: a 1-2 every weekend

Say Mercedes finish one-two at every race from tonight, with Russell winning and Antonelli second each time. Russell gains 7 points a weekend, which isn’t enough. Here’s how it plays out with the full calendar:

After	Antonelli’s lead	Points left	Title
Singapore	82	150	Still open
United States	75	125	Still open
Mexico	68	100	Still open
Brazil	61	75	Still open
Las Vegas	54	50	Antonelli champion

On a shorter calendar, it would be over sooner:

Calendar	Antonelli is champion at
Full calendar	Las Vegas
No Qatar or no Abu Dhabi	Brazil
Neither	Mexico

Russell would win seven races in a row and still lose the title by 40 points. Even winning every race, Russell only takes the title if Antonelli averages fourth or worse behind him.

Antonelli has an 89-point cushion. Photo: Wan Mikhail Roslan/ZUMA Press

The nightmare: Antonelli scores nothing

What if Antonelli failed to finish every remaining race? This is how many points each rival would need to overtake him on 325.

Driver (points needed)	Full calendar	One race dropped	Neither
Russell (90)	12.9 a race, between 3rd and 4th	15 a race, 3rd	18 a race, 2nd
Hamilton (105)	15 a race, 3rd	17.5 a race, 2nd or better	21 a race, mostly wins
Leclerc (129)	18.4 a race, above 2nd on average	21.5 a race, mostly wins	Not possible
Verstappen (130)	18.6 a race, above 2nd on average	21.7 a race, mostly wins	Not possible
Norris (137)	19.6 a race, above 2nd on average	22.8 a race, nearly all wins	Not possible

So even in the worst possible case, Russell can’t just turn up. He would still need to finish between third and fourth on average with the full calendar, and second every weekend if both Middle East races were dropped.

A more realistic worry is a couple of bad weekends. If Antonelli retires while Russell wins, he loses 25 points each time. He could survive three of those and still be 14 points ahead. It would take four to wipe out his lead.

What about Hamilton?

Hamilton is 104 points behind. To win the title he would need to outscore Antonelli by 105 points over the last seven races, an average of 15 a race.

All the numbers above are against Russell, because he’s second. Antonelli also has to be clear of Hamilton by the same margin, which is usually easier because Hamilton starts 15 points further back. The exception is the earliest title: to win it in Austin, Antonelli would also need to gain 22 points on Hamilton across Singapore and the United States.

Tie-breaks on equal points go to the driver with more wins. We’ve assumed no penalties or disqualifications.